Cost Simulation

Overview

Cost Simulation calculates several cost scenarios on a BOM at the same time and compares them against the baseline (current state). It shows, on one screen, how scenarios such as an exchange rate shock, a change in production volume, a localisation target, a cost reduction target or a switch to an alternative supplier affect material/labour/overhead cost, the domestic content ratio and supply risk. USD/TRY and EUR/TRY rates are pulled live from the daily foreign exchange bulletin of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB).

Key Concepts

• Scenario — a set of assumptions applied to a BOM (volume multiplier, exchange rate, target domestic content ratio, line-level overrides); each scenario is calculated independently and compared against the baseline (delta USD, delta %, delta domestic content %).
• Baseline — the reference point in the scenario list; the difference of every other scenario is calculated against it.
• Line override — changing the unit cost, quantity, supplier, lead time or domestic content ratio of a BOM line within a scenario; switching to an alternative supplier is also a type of override.
• Domestic content ratio — a cost-weighted metric showing what percentage of the BOM consists of domestic content.
• Supply risk — classified automatically (CRITICAL/HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW) from the number of critical parts, single-source parts and parts with a lead time longer than 60 days.

Typical Workflow

1. Open Cost Simulation from the left-hand menu; the current USD/TRY and EUR/TRY rates are pulled automatically from TCMB (a fallback rate is used if the bulletin is unavailable).
2. Run the ready-made scenario set with the Demo BOM, or enter your own BOM (per-line unit cost, supplier, lead time, domestic content ratio, alternatives).
3. On the Scenario Comparison tab, review the delta USD/% against the baseline and the change in domestic content in the KPI cards and the table.
4. On the BOM Detail tab, see the per-line cost breakdown.
5. On the Domestic Content & Risk tab, review the counts of critical/single-source/long-lead parts and the domestic content trend.
6. On the Supplier Alternatives tab, assess the cost impact of switching to approved alternative suppliers.

Feature Reference

• Live USD/TRY and EUR/TRY (FX selling) rates from TCMB — cached for 15 minutes, continuing with a fallback rate if the bulletin is unavailable; historical rate queries are also supported
• 6 ready-made scenario templates: Current State (Baseline), 2× Production Volume, +20% Exchange Rate Shock, Localisation Target, Cost Reduction Target, Alternative Supplier (for long-lead parts)
• Running a custom simulation with a free-form BOM and scenario definition (/api/costing/simulate)
• Line-level overrides: unit cost, quantity, supplier, lead time, domestic content ratio, alternative supplier selection
• Cost breakdown by category (direct material / purchased part) and by supplier
• Cost-weighted domestic content ratio calculation and change against the baseline
• Critical part, single-source part and long-lead (>60 days) part counters with risk classification
• Listing and re-viewing past simulations

Constraints / Known Limits

• The demo BOM (CNC Machining Centre BOM) is fixed sample data; real use requires the BOM to be fed from ERP/PLM or from CSV.
• Simulation results are held in an in-memory store; for a persistent/auditable history they should be moved to the production database.
• When the TCMB service is unreachable, fixed fallback rates (USD 32.5, EUR 35.2) are used — in that case the results do not reflect the current market rate.